posted 02-14-07 10:45 AM CT (US)        

February 12, 2007

BY PAUL GREEN

In the last 30 years Illinois has gone from one of the nation's most politically competitive states to a solid deep blue Democratic Party bastion even as most of its neighboring states have remained hotly contested battlegrounds. Why?

The recently completed November election in which Illinois Democrats enjoyed landslide wins in every statewide race and also expanded their majorities in both chambers of Illinois General Assembly illustrates the major shift in our state's politics.

The geopolitical factors

Chicago for decades has been bedrock Democratic, and though its turnout numbers have diminished it still produces massive margins for Democrats -- e.g., Gov. Blagojevich won more than 77 percent of the 2006 Chicago vote. Suburban Cook County -- until recently a partial Republican counter to Democratic Chicago -- has become almost reliably Democratic. Blagojevich carried the region by 100,000 votes. Racial change in the south suburbs has spurred this political shift, but Republican vote decline goes deeper. Perhaps most discouraging for Illinois Republicans is that the shift in suburban political loyalties has taken place as suburban voter turnout finally has passed Chicago.

The five collar counties (DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry and Will) are the only region whose vote power is on the increase. In 2006 these five counties accounted for a little less than one-fourth of the Illinois total vote. A few decades ago this news would have been bliss for Illinois Republicans, but today it merely receives shrugs. The collars in statewide races (and some legislative and congressional contests as well) are no longer overwhelmingly Republican -- in fact, Blagojevich carried two of the collars, Lake and Will, in November. The other three are becoming politically competitive in statewide battles, which leaves the Illinois GOP with no huge bedrock vote base to offset Democratic Chicago and suburban Cook.

The GOP has maintained its strength in central Illinois, but Democratic vote muscle in the southern part of the state combined with Democratic Cook County now overwhelms Republican statewide candidates. In short, there aren't enough GOP central Illinois voters to overcome the "Democratic statewide squeeze."

Internal party dissent

Top Illinois Democrats are feuding, but compared to their Republican counterparts, these Democrats are a combination of the Waltons and the Brady Bunch. If the Illinois Republican Party were a family, it would be classified as dysfunctional. Social conservatives have made being antiabortion and anti-gay rights a litmus test for their support. So-called moderate conservatives believe these social issues should not define their party, and under the leadership of former GOP governors Jim Thompson, Jim Edgar and George Ryan they have dominated intraparty battles.

Now that the governorship has been lost, as well as every other state office, Illinois Republicans are at war with themselves. Since they cannot defeat Democrats, they fight each other over such things as who should be the party's national committeeman and which philosophical view should prevail in party platforms.

A tale of two parties

Since the Democrats hold every office they have many actual leaders as well as potential leaders carving out political turf and futures for themselves. The Republicans, splintered and having little power, are like a political ship without a captain or captains -- vulnerable to ideological bloggers, one-issue special interest groups and anybody else with a gripe.

Last but not least is the Barack Obama factor. Race is to Illinois Democrats what philosophy is to the Illinois GOP -- a potential political minefield/party divider. However, most Illinois Democrats have rallied to the Illinois junior senator's presidential bid while exalting the glory and wonders of multiracial politics.

To paraphrase Abraham Lincoln, "a divided party cannot win." Thus Illinois' political future is dark blue -- as Democrats, despite their personal differences, remain an actual political party sailing toward future victories while their Republican counterparts search frantically for a lifeboat to stay afloat.

Paul Green is director of the Institute for Politics at Roosevelt University.

posted 02-14-07 10:46 AM CT (US)            

It has been a 10 year fight and a change of the guard is taking place. It was the GOP itself that brought about the resignation of our own Governor. In the 1998 election the ticket had 3 candidates who claimed conservatism (Life,guns and taxes) and won for the GOP ( Gov G Ryan, US Senate Peter Fitzgerald, AG Jim Ryan) it was the base who turned on George when he raised taxes for IL First, .flipped on Government funding of abortion and backed homosexual rights. It was Peter Fitzgerald who fought the party hacks and imported Pat Fitzgerald to do the job the Democratic combine US attorney would not do. Professor Green cannot understand because he was a friend of George and the combine, and hates conservatism.

Then after the speech in Kankakee when George lashed out at the base, then let every murderer off of death row, and promised to bring the party down with him the powers that run the ILGOP and the conservative movement have been at war. The party always cutting conservative candidates off at the knees, running their own candidates who aren't Republicans (JBT another favorite of the professor) and working to make sure no Outsider ( conservative) would win.

When the GOP offers a candidate who stands for the national platform the people of Illinois will vote for them. Now is the time for the outsiders to band together, get a candidate to run for Senate and show the voters the GOP has been reborn. It is up to us. There won't ever be a better time.

Jim Leahy