If that happens, every time the United States does something, or defends a country they don't like ( Israel) they will try to terrorize us into submission. We will be living in fear and allowing the forces of evil set the worlds agenda. That's why I am going out on a limb to call this election. George W. Bush will win! The scenario mentioned above is not the American people I know or the way we have become the worlds leader; we will not allow terror to win.

I can hear; but where is the proof? Every poll says that this race is even! Let me try to explain why I think W will win. Not in court but on election night. First the battle ground states, FL, OH, WI, NH, IA, MN, MI, MO, NM, PA, NV. Only 4 out of 10 were Bush states last time and Bush only needs to keep what he won to win again. Bush can even lose Ohio and still win with Wisconsin and Minnesota and Iowa (all states he is leading in today) and have enough electoral votes to win. Kerry on the other hand has to defend a lot more states. He was in Detroit Sunday, in African American churches, that's his base, if he has to spend the last weekend shoring up his base he's in trouble. On Thursday he was saying to crowds "WAKE UP AMERICA" does that sound familiar? Remember Bob Dole in 1996? I think whatever the pollsters are saying this is our election to lose.

I think that Bush will win Ohio and Michigan because homosexual marriage is on the ballot in both states. As we have seen when the people are allowed to vote on this subject, protecting marriage wins in overwhelming numbers. These ballot initiatives will help to bring out more conservative and religious voters who agree with the GOP on this issue. Ohio has a Republican Governor, two Republican Senators and a majority of their congress people are Republican. The poll numbers have all been within the margin of error so you would have to say that Ohio is a GOP state until proven otherwise.

Michigan has been a Democratic state but the marriage amendment is very popular there as well. We have seen in at least three reputable national polls that Bush has doubled his African American vote, from 9 to 19% this has to scare the Democrats to death! It shows that religious black voters are moving to Bush because of the Homosexual marriage rulings from the courts and in Michigan that will help push Bush over the top.

Florida, a state that Bush leads in already; the President has to be helped because of the pick up in Jewish voters by seven to ten points from 20% to 27-30% depending on the polls you look at, for his standing up for Israel. The President has closed the gender gap in every poll, he and Kerry are within one or two points with all women, in 2000 it was just married women Bush won. The President is ahead by 20 points in who can handle our security and the war on terror and Iraq.

The GOP has spent tens of millions of dollars in get out the vote strategies. They have been working to build their organizations since the last election in the battle ground states, last August ABC new had a story that the Bush team was organized in Ohio and Wisconsin and other "close" states down to the precinct level. The Republicans are doing this themselves. The Democrats are farming this stuff out to outside groups like ACORN and MoveOn. It is illegal for them to coordinate or even contact each other so while the GOP is hands on the Dem.'s have to rely on others to do their work. Even if the Democrats cheat it still makes it harder to coordinate since it will have to be under the table.

The rest of the battleground states are close, but I think they are trending Bush. We will know right away if it will be a GOP night. If Ohio is called for Bush it almost guarantees a Bush victory. When the Central part of the country is called and if Florida goes Republican it will be a very good night for Bush and he will win with well over 300 electoral votes. (Florida won't be called until the panhandle precincts are closed 7:00pm CST because of last election). If Bush loses Ohio he can still win but will need Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota to overcome the loss of Ohio, all states he has a lead in as of today, and all Democratic wins in 2000.

No use in worrying any more, as long as we all get out and vote on Tuesday and make sure our families and friend do as well it looks as though the GOP is on track to having a good night. We have a chance to pick up at least 3 Senate seats to add to our majority in the Senate and pick up 5 seats in the house. After a campaign like this one where the network media gave up all pretense of neutrality and the Hollywood and performing elite's have gone out of their way to attack this President, it is amazing how close this election is. The silent majority of this country will again show that they understand the importance of this election and come through.

At the same time, we are releasing a new set of mini-documentaries filmed with Swift Boat Veterans, also available at www.stolenhonor.com. These three-to-five-minute movies discuss the controversies surrounding many of Kerry's wartime medals and his alleged secret mission into Cambodia -- a mission even his official biographer now says never happened. The short films take on:

John Kerry's First Purple Heart -- How did John Kerry get his first purple heart when all three officers required to approve it rejected his application?
Christmas in Cambodia -- John Kerry has repeatedly told of being in Cambodia on a secret mission, with it being seared in his memory. See what everyone else has to say.
The Sampan Cover Up -- An example of where we believe John Kerry simply filed a false action report to cover up his conduct.
No Man Left Behind -- You heard John Kerry tell America one story about his Vietnam service at the Democratic National Convention. Here's the true story of John Kerry's Bronze Star.
Third Purple Heart -- How we believe John Kerry faked a third purple heart in order to flee from Vietnam...not as a hero but in shame.
We urge you to take the time to view these important works and thank you again for helping us tell the truth about John Kerry.

Bush 49%
Kerry 46%
Interestingly they skipped polling on Friday and Saturday and this poll covers October 27,28 and 31. According to these charts, it appears we may get one final number from The Battleground Poll today as they have a blank box for November 1st. We shall see.

Bush Surges (by 1%) In NBC/WSJ Poll
NBC News and The Wall Street Journal have cast their reputation with a 1% lead for President Bush, up from a tied race in their last poll.

Bush 48%
Kerry 47%
Nader 1%

Bush Surges (by 1%) In CBS/NYT Poll
We got Pew Research’s reputation-making poll a couple posts down showing Bush ahead by 3%. Now CBS and their good pals at The New York Times are also staking their reputation on a 3% Bush lead.

Bush 49%
Kerry 46%
Nader 1%
*Among people who have already casted their ballots, Bush has an even wider 8% lead.

Bush Up By 2% In Gallup Poll
In the national race, bush holds a 2% lead in the national race.

Bush 49%
Kerry 47%
Nader 1%

Bushies note that President maintains an average 2 percent point lead in national polls.
Lot of discussion about the recent Gallup Poll, showing the tie race — 49 to 49. Apparently, Gallup methodology allocated 90 percent of undecided voters for Kerry and only 10 percent for Bush, therefore skewing the results. Was this a poll or a Gallup prediction?
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THE MATTHEW DOWD MEMO [11/01 09:36 AM]
Matthew Dowd, chief strategist of the Bush campaign, has released what is probably his final memo on the state of the race:

Heading into Election Day, President Bush is well-positioned to win re-election. The average of all national polls released in the past 48 hours shows the President leading John Kerry by 2 points, 48% to 46%.

President Bush’s lead is built on the higher intensity of his support compared to Kerry’s. As the Pew analysis noted, President Bush “registers a higher percentage of strong supporters in the final weekend of the campaign than any candidate since former President Ronald Reagan in 1984.”

Furthermore, early and absentee voting has built up the President’s lead even before the polling places open. The recent CBS News/New York Times survey reveals that 20% of voters have already cast their ballots, and President Bush leads among them by 8 points, 51% to 43%.

There has been much discussion about how undecideds will split their vote going in to Election Day. Based on historical and current data, I expect undecideds to, at worst, split their votes between President Bush and John Kerry.

First, looking at the past three incumbent re-elections, undecideds have split their votes between the incumbent and the challenger.

In both the National Election Survey and Gallup’s own pre-Election Day polling for the last three elections, undecideds have split evenly. Also, from my reading of previous Gallup allocations, they allocated undecideds between the challenger and the incumbent in 1976, 1980, 1984, and 1996. The only time that they allocated undecideds to the challenger in total, 1992, they ended up far off
the mark!

Second, our own internal data shows remaining undecideds to have similar image views of President Bush and John Kerry. President Bush has a 50% approval rating among undecideds and they think that he will win re-election by a 3 to 1 margin. This would argue for at least splitting undecideds evenly, if not allocating more to President Bush.

==> Dwight D. Eisenhower