Enacted in the wake of the World Trade Center tragedy as the Justice Department's first priority to deter future terrorist attacks, the bill sped through the House on Oct. 24, 2001, by a vote of 358-66 (with one abstention) and the Senate the next day, 98-1 (Russ Feingold of Wisconsin, plus one abstention).

The Justice Department says the legislation has ''played a key part -- and often the leading role -- in a number of successful operations to protect innocent Americans from the deadly plans of terrorists.''

The portion most hated by librarians and the ACLU: Section 215, which gives the FBI the power to go into library records under a suspicion or relevance standard. Says the Act: A special agent in charge or higher officer ''may make an application for an order requiring the production of any tangible thing (including books, records, papers, documents and other items) for an investigation to protect against international terrorism or clandestine intelligence activities, provided that such investigation of a United States person is not conducted solely upon the basis of activities protected by the First Amendment to the Constitution."

Just as some representatives of their number oppose any curtailment of Internet pornography, shrugging off danger to children in favor of wide-ranging license, a radicalized group of librarians dismisses this safeguard against terrorism, notwithstanding the fact that almost 2,800 lost their lives in the World Trade Center disaster. As part of what the Wall Street Journal describes as a ''show of defiance,'' Skokie's library director, Carolyn Anthony, says that the only records she keeps from destruction involve homebound borrowers. Right on, Ms. Anthony: Shred those records rather than let them fall into the hands of the FBI. To cite the extent of this Justice Department-inspired plot, I've decided to quote some right-wing, reactionary senators who, by supporting the act, can be listed as librarian-baiting, anti-civil liberties snoops and enemies of freedom.

Here goes:

Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), now a Democratic presidential candidate: ''If one is going to cope with an al-Qaida with a terrorist entity such as Osama bin Laden, who moves his money into this legitimate marketplace, law enforcement has to have the ability to be able to hold people accountable where it is legitimate to do so.''

Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D-S.D.): ''This reflects the balance between protection of civil liberties and privacy with the need for greater law enforcement.''

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.): ''It's [the Patriot Act] a good balance.''

Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.): ''If there is one key word that underscores this bill, it is 'balance.' . . . The balance between the need to update our laws given the new challenges and the need to maintain our basic freedoms which distinguish us from our enemies is real.''

Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.), a Democratic presidential candidate: ''We simply cannot prevail in the battle against terrorism if the right hand of our government has no idea what the left hand is doing.''

Sen. Joseph Biden (D-Del.): ''[T]he FBI could get a wiretap to investigate the Mafia but they could not get one to investigate terrorists. To put it bluntly, that was crazy! What's good for the mob should be good for terrorists.''

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.): ''The only answer all of us could come up with, after having briefing after briefing, is we did not have these tools. This bill aims to change that.''

Attention, librarians: Destroy the Congressional Record of Oct. 25, 2001, which carries these words. If readers get their hands on it, the monster FBI will be immeasurably strengthened and our freedoms will be in danger.

Today’s Economic News

The Labor Department announced this morning that the U.S. economy added 126,000 new jobs in October after a revised gain of 125,000 in September – for a total of 286,000 new jobs since August.

The new data, more than double the figures initially reported, shows improvement in the labor market. Employment has now grown three months in a row, for a total jobs gain of over a quarter million. Read the raw data here.

All signs indicate that the labor market is gaining strength and the U.S. economy is poised for recovery.

All Signs Point to Strong Economic Growth

The economy is responding to President Bush’s pro-growth economic policies and all signs point to a strong recovery. Last week’s third quarter GDP announcement showed the fastest pace of economic growth in nearly twenty years.

Recent economic data is encouraging, but there is still work to be done. The President will not be satisfied until everyone who wants a job has one.

President Bush is working closely with members of Congress to encourage them to take action on his six-point plan for economic growth. Congress needs to make progress on these important priorities, including energy legislation, making health care costs more affordable, opening new markets to American products, and reducing the lawsuit burden.

The Economy at a Glance

The economy is growing at a rapid pace. The nation’s gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 7.2 percent in the third quarter of 2003.
The economy is adding new jobs. The economy added 286,000 new non-farm jobs in the past three months and the nation’s unemployment rate is the lowest since April.
The stock market is up 30 percent since March.
Inflation is low.
After-tax incomes are rising.
Home ownership is at record highs. Homeownership reached an all-time record of 68% (of American households) in the third quarter.
Productivity is high.
Durable Goods orders are up. U.S. Durable goods orders - orders for those goods lasting 3 years or more - rose in September for the fourth month in five. The data shows an increase in business spending – which is crucial for a strong recovery.
Factory orders, especially for high-tech equipment, have risen over the last several months. New orders for non-defense capital goods, excluding aircraft, rose 3.9% last month. Unfilled orders for such equipment rose 1.2%. New orders for computers and electronic equipment increased at a 36% rate in the third quarter.
Both auto and non-auto consumer spending are strong. Total consumer spending grew at a 6.6% rate in the third quarter, the largest gain since 1997.
Industrial production is on the rise. Industrial production posted a solid increase in September and a 3.3 percent annual rate of increase for the third quarter as a whole. The fifth consecutive month of increases in business equipment production suggests a sustained period of rising investment spending.
Housing starts have remained outstanding. Housing starts rose 3.4 percent in September to an annual rate of 1.888 million units, higher than market expectations and approaching the highest level since 1986.
Car and truck sales continue to be strong. Aided by favorable incentives, auto sales surged at a 37% annual rate to a 17 million unit pace in the third quarter, the fifth highest on record.
Small business optimism recently reached a record high level, according to the National Federation of Independent Business, and confidence among large-company CEOs reached its highest level in eleven years according to the Conference Board.
Consumer confidence is rising. The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence index rose to 81.1 in October from 77 in September, reflecting increases in present conditions and expectations. The report showed a rise in plans to buy autos and appliances. Some 19.7% indicated in October they expect jobs to become available within the next six months, the most since June of 2002.

Where the public is today

In the two most recent Gallup polls (released October 13 and October 27), President Bush’s approval ratings were at 56% and 53% respectively – a slight rise from the approval of a month ago at 50%. In the most recent ABC News/Washington Post poll (released 11/2), President Bush’s job approval rose to 56%. As a reminder, in 1996 Bill Clinton was re-elected with a job approval of 54% right before Election Day. Further, Ronald Reagan and Clinton both had approval ratings a year out from Election Day in the forties (Reagan was at 49% and Clinton at 46%) – roughly 6 to 8 points below where President Bush is today.

One major reason why President Bush’s approval numbers have had such lasting power is that a majority of the public sees this President as honest and trustworthy, a strong leader, and believes that he cares about them. A second important reason for the sustained nature of these positive numbers in the wake of consistent negative media coverage concerning Iraq and the economy is that the public sees the President as presenting a clear and positive message on dealing with the public’s concerns. In contrast, the public has not seen, read or heard any positive effort by the Democrats dealing with issues. A third important consideration is the public trusts President Bush more than the Democrats on handling the economy, terrorism and foreign policy.

Voter approval on handling of the economy is a further area highlighting where President Bush stands in a historical context. In the latest public polling, President Bush maintains an approval on the economy in the mid-forties – exactly what Clinton had at the end of 1995 and above what Reagan had in 1983. Former President Bush’s approval on the economy at this same time in 1991 was 28% and fell to the mid-teens in 1992! In looking at Gallup polls for the past 30 years, approval on the economy is a dominant factor in whether some Presidents are re-elected while some are voted out of office.

A couple of factors that have contributed to this difference on economic approval are that the public is more optimistic and much less angry than in 1992. In fact, for the first time in months Gallup shows that the public is slightly more optimistic on the direction of the economy than pessimistic by a margin of 47% to 43% - a net positive of +4%. At this same time in 1991, optimism on the economy was very low at 19% to pessimism at 69% - a net negative of -50%.

This is driven to an extent by economic good news. Today, the stock market on average is rising and the initial jobless claims’ four week moving average is below 400,000, as well as housing starts, GDP growth, etc.

Where we are headed

Though at this time this is good news for a campaign headed into an election year, this race is likely to be very tight and go down to the wire. The country is very evenly divided, and with Democratic partisans lined up solidly against President Bush, this race will stay very close. In fact, the most recent Gallup poll had President Bush leading an unnamed Democratic opponent by three points. This number has been relatively stable the last couple of months. Some public polls show President Bush leading by more, some by less, but all show a very close race. As I have repeated time and again, this race will be decided within a four- or five-point margin, not the 18- to 20-point margins like 1984 or 1972.

After the Democratic nominee is all but certain in the late winter/early spring, it would not be surprising for us to fall behind for a bit. First, this is just the nature of a divided and polarized electorate. Second, once the Democratic nominee is all but assured, that person will receive a deluge of positive press at least for a couple of weeks, and this will temporarily be reflected in public opinion polls.

Further, just as in 2002, the economy will likely be a dominant issue going into 2004 as well as the war on terrorism. We pointed out in a memo prior to Election Day 2002 that the number one issue was the economy, and at the time Democrats and their operatives overwhelmingly agreed. And the primary reason Republican candidates won in 2002 is that the public had more trust in them on Election Day in handling the economy than Democrats.

So, my suggestion is to try and put all the “numbers” and speculation in their historical context, and expect a campaign that will likely be behind at various points over the next year. We must remind our key supporters around the country that all the numbers reflect a closely divided electorate, and less about flagging or soaring support for President Bush whose support in a historical context has been consistently positive. All polls are snapshots and our supporters should be encouraged to place them in perspective, and look at other internal numbers in public polls. For example, CBS News recently conducted a poll, and one number not prominently featured was that President Bush went from being even with a generic Democrat to up twelve!

==> Margaret Thatcher