First, more than most people realized, the president truly became a political icon by his eloquent response to Sept. 11, 2001. Not only were Bush's words eloquent, he also embodied the will of America to resist. When criss-crossing the nation, he talked in blunt, Harry Truman style to voters. The national Republican Party is short of lots of things--innovation, leadership and aggressive recruitment--but in Bush it has a leader the stature of Ronald Reagan with Truman's crisp, gutsy approach that communicates decisiveness to the American people.

Second, the Democrats failed to capitalize on the sluggish economy. They brought it up but did not present a compelling alternative. They used Al Gore's tired mantra of blaming it on tax cuts that benefitted ''the top 1 percent of the country,'' but Democrats were loath to repeal them, which would mean a tax hike. This basic cowardice came through. On foreign affairs and defense, Democratic candidates didn't question Bush's strategy. The Democrats who lost basically recycled their party's 2000 approach. Many of their commercials sounded like leftovers from the earlier presidential election.

Third, although the GOP is not as effective as the Democratic Party on the ground, i.e., registering and getting out the vote, the president's message made up for it. Bush not only sold his case, but acted as party organizer-in-chief, repeating again and again the admonition to get out and vote. The most eloquent recent Republican president, Reagan, stressed motivation. Bush's Trumanesque style not only made his case in plain words but pleaded directly for voter turnout. At every stop he urged, ''Go to your friends, tell 'em to vote.'' It was a party chairman's speech as well as a motivation address.

Now to the reasons for the spectacular Republican loss in Illinois. One is assuredly Operation Safe Road and Gov. Ryan's part in it. It was a scandal that has grown steadily, casting doubt on his integrity as a public official. The scandal was the chief--but by no means the only--cause.

The auxiliary cause was Ryan's turning back on his earlier promises involving O'Hare Airport, taxes and social policy. He swiftly undercut his base; time after time he stuck it in its eye: the horrid overspending in Illinois FIRST, the hike in fees, his cold veto of a key social bill he had earlier promised to sign, his trips to Cuba that defied the policies of his party's president, his eagerness to placate the arrogant Mayor Daley. For these things, Ryan, who would have loved to run for re-election, was dethroned by polls that signified a Republican putsch.

Third was the largely inept gubernatorial campaign of Attorney General Jim Ryan. That he could not convince Patrick O'Malley to lend his enthusiastic support is not Jim Ryan's fault, but he could have spared himself in the primary by adhering more closely to his base. Making a grant to the Rev. Jesse Jackson was a grievous error, and being too timid to investigate alleged violations of the minister's nonprofit status was another. And although he could not have prosecuted the governor on Operation Safe Road, Jim Ryan's caution made him silent during the long weeks when the scandal roiled. When it was apparent that the governor was critically wounded, Jim Ryan finally spoke out, and even then hesitatingly.

Once Ryan became the GOP nominee, crucial weeks were lost searching for a new state party chairman. Inexplicably, he offered the job to one prospect after another, bearing the humiliation of being turned down. At the very least, Ryan should have had an acting chairman perform the duties and seek a chairman quietly, not making an announcement until the offer was accepted. Gary MacDougal has been an excellent choice and should stay on for the rebuilding.

There are those who say that state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka should assume the party's leadership. Not so. She has an erratic following that suits her needs but shatters the party base. Nor should O'Malley assume that Ryan's defeat has given him a legacy. The leadership belongs to one who while underfunded ran a creditable and graceful campaign for the U.S. Senate. That man is Jim Durkin. His campaign took on a tone that the party should apply as it builds up to a victory in 2006.

In this election voters were given the choice between two very different kinds of leadership and resoundingly they chose the positive leadership that will move America forward. Their choice made further history by making President Bush the first president to win back the Senate in a midterm election.

Republicans were able to be successful because:

An unprecedented number of Republican volunteers made the difference by working to spread our candidate's message, and get voters to the polls. The tremendous Republican gains were enabled by the incredible work and dedication of Republican supporters and negated the Democrat machine's efforts.
Republicans had high quality candidates who ran high quality races offering reform agendas and solutions to problems;
President Bush, Speaker Hastert, and Majority Leader Lott produced a record of substantive accomplishments and an agenda for the future;
Under President Bush's leadership candidates were provided with resources, voters were engaged and the president and his team traveled the country highlighting their positive agenda.
Thanks to you this election has better enabled President Bush and Congressional leaders to work together in a bipartisan way to accomplish the agenda of the American people.

You truly have made a positive difference for our nation!

Sincerely,

Jack Oliver
Deputy Chairman
Republican National Committee

PS: I would also like to share with you this exclusive, internal analysis of last night's election by Senior Advisor, Matthew Dowd. His data shows that it was President Bush and Republicans laying
out a positive message agenda that proved decisive in close Republican victories. Because you were key to helping spread this message, I thought you would appreciate reading it. Read the memorandum here.
**************************

Memo from Matthew Dowd, Senior Advisor to the RNC

TO: Republican Leaders and Interested Parties

FR: Matthew Dowd
Senior Adviser
Republican National Committee

RE: Midterm Election Analysis - what key lessons can be learned from the election.

The unprecedented, historic nature of last night’s results cannot be overstated. By adding to the margin in the U.S. House of Representatives, Republicans accomplished last night what has never been done in a mid-term by a Republican President. And by taking the U.S. Senate back during a mid-term, Republicans have done what has never been done since the direct election of Senators began.

Before election day, Democrats were confident they would have a margin of six or so governors when election night was over. Republicans in fact retained a majority of governors in spite of having to defend 23 of 36 seats and losing some open seats. Incredibly, more incumbent Democratic governors lost on election night than incumbent Republican governors. Democrats are taking advantage of the conventional wisdom of some Washington pundits by quantifying their limited gubernatorial successes in terms of electoral votes and their impact on the 2004 election. Historically, Governors’ offices do not have a lot to do with success of Presidential re-elections. Republicans held 30 Governor’s offices in 1996, and lost badly. And in 2000, Bush won ten states where Democrats had governors, and Gore won nine states where Republicans had governors.

As I laid out in my memo of October 12th (see attached), "As we approach the November mid-term election, the President and the Republican Party are in a historic and positive position." President Bush’s unprecedented approval ratings and level of trust with the American people provided an environment where Republican candidates could succeed on a local and statewide basis. The normal mid-term wave was stopped before it could reach shore, and Republican candidates had the advantage of a level playing field, which historically doesn’t exist in a mid-term. In addition, since polling began some 70 years ago, this is the first Republican President to go into a mid-term election with a 90% or higher job approval among Republicans. Bush’s job approval among Republicans on election day was 96% and among all voters it was 67%.

As mentioned in the previous memo, despite Democrats best efforts, the American public ended up trusting Republicans more than Democrats to handle the economy. Since Democrats do not have the voters’ overwhelming trust on the economy and have no real solutions from their leaders, the Republicans were in a great position to win the debate on the economy in this election and did. While some pundits suggested that terrorism/security overwhelmed other issues, the economy was a top issue on election day and Republicans won it. Internal RNC polling over the weekend showed Republicans moving from even with Democrats on the issue of the economy (itself an unprecedented good position during a slow economy) to an advantage of eight points.

On election day, the American public fundamentally trusted President Bush and Republican leaders more on the key issues of importance than Democratic candidates. The contrast between President Bush and Republicans laying out a positive agenda to deal with American’s concerns in a bi-partisan way and Democrats negative attacks and lack of any agenda was dramatic and it showed up in voters behavior on election day.

It was also the specific content of the message. In both RNC and public polls, voters choose by generally 2-1 the GOP’s message (tax cuts, less government, fiscal restraint, focus on job creation and growth) over the Democrats message (delay or repeal the Bush tax cut and spend more on social programs).

Also, as the 2000 election showed, Democratic negative scare tactics on social security reform did not work. In race after close race, this was Democrats closing message, and voters, in a best-case scenario for Democrats, ignored it. Republican candidates including Lindsey Graham, Elizabeth Dole, Pat Toomey, Ann Northrup, Norm Coleman and Jim Talent all met Democrats scare tactics head on and were successful.

And finally this election was not determined, as some pundits and democratic partisans have suggested in the aftermath of the election, that Republicans outspent Democrats overwhelmingly. Democrats and their allies equaled or outspent Republicans in a large number of races that Republicans won. For example, the Democratic candidate in Texas outspent the Republican by a three to one margin, and lost overwhelmingly. The incumbent Democrat Governor of Georgia outspent his GOP opponent nearly 7 to 1 and yet lost.

The conventional wisdom, at least from the local media seems to be that Tuesdays elections in Illinois were the repudiation of Republican party principles. They say that it is time for the party to moderate it's policies and move to the left if the GOP wants to have any chance of ever getting back into power.The only Republican who won office they say, is Judy Barr Topinka and she is a moderate. I think it would be dangerous for the Democrats or Republicans to change because of this election. When you break it down you can see why.

First the race for the Treasurers office. It was not a headline maker, nothing particularly big about it , not a lot of money, no big name challenger, no big issue, no scandal and the incumbent won.

Next is the AG's race. It was a big race for one reason, Mike Madigan put his prestige on the line. He ran the campaign, he used every advantage and called in every chit he had. Can you imagine if he had lost this race? One thing is for sure he would not be speaker for long, someone would see weakness and exploit it. He would never be reelected to his post.
Joe Birkett was out spent 3-1. Lisa Madigan raised three million dollars, more than has ever been raised for the Attorney General race by a long shot. It was a race that has never had that amount of money spent because it has never been that important in the scheme of things. Nobody said when Roland Burris beat Jim Ryan in 1994 that it meant anything. Just that Jim Ryan was not ready to move up, he had no organization.
As Ms. Madigan and her supporters said thousands of times it is not a prosecutors office, it is more of a consumer protection office you don't need any experience. Remember Patrick Fitzgerald is still there and nothing Lisa can do can stop prosecutions of her father or her supporters.

The General Assembly map was drawn by the Democrats, the fact they won the state Senate is no surprise to anyone, keeping it will be hard now that the Cook County Democrats run everything. Downstaters are already feeling a little left out as the pie is being divided. Let's see if downstaters are happy with the crumbs that are going to be left for them, I doubt it.

The Secretary of States race. No sitting Secretary of State has lost reelection in over 30 years. Jesse had four times the amount of money and Cohn had zero name recognition (she had no primary fight). This is not a policy position anyway.

Now to the Governors race. Jim Ryan was running with all the odds against him, the current Governor was bitter and set on showing the party that they were wrong for tossing him. On Republican Day at the state fair (Renamed from Governors day)the whole election was broken down into one incedent. I was in the hotel lobby in Springfield where the county chairman were meeting. I was standing with a few campaign managers when in walked George Ryan. One of the guys looked at me and said "There goes the whole day! You are looking at the headlines in tomorrow's newspapers. Now instead of Jim Ryan's day, it will be George's day". He was correct the headlines the next day were "George scolds the GOP, says they should talk about the good things the party has done." Any time Jim Ryan would make a move in the polls George would do something to steal the headlines away.

In an election year, when a Governor should be finding a way to help win an election, George was doing the opposite. He did everything he could to anger the base, he raised taxes, closed prisons, went to Cuba, fired the people who were fighting corruption on the Gambling board and stacked the deck with people who were on the Casino's side. All of those things were bad enough, but they were nothing compared to the commutation hearings of the death penalty cases.
With less than three weeks to go before the election they started. For two of the last three weeks of the election George Ryan was on television everyday, the pictures of families going through all of the pain of living through these nightmares again reminded people why they hated George. He went so far as to let people think that he would commute all of the sentences of the murders on death row. Next to that Rod looked like a conservative, and there was nothing Jim could do.

The other problem Jim Ryan had was the money. The GOP had no base of operations to raise it from. The whole term of the George Ryan governorship, the money went into his campaign coffers, leaving the party with nothing. During the Presidential election of 2000 George outraised the party by a couple of million dollars. (Republicans were out spent in that election twelve million to four million and lost Illinois by 13 points). As the head of the party, George made sure it was he who had the money to dole out, giving him power to bend people to his will. That's why it was left for the base of the party to attack George, he held the elected officials hostage; he had the money, if they wanted it, they better do as they were told.

Rod was doing well in the money chase but exploded when Mayor Daley came onboard his campaign as General Chairman. First thing it did was to say the Mayor was going to let him win the city and the second thing was to open avenues of revenue most Democrats don't get. The Chamber of Commerce, Medical Society, Retail Merchants etc... The GOP without the Governor's office had no way to compete in the money area. If it were a regular race the outgoing Governor would help his own party (like Jim Edgar did). There would not have been the money problem. On top of every thing else with all of the internal problems in the party the President could not come in to help either.

So you can see it was not the bland campaign Jim Ryan ran or the issues that lost the race it was a concerted effort by George Ryan and a lack of money that lost it. The Democrats with a ticket full of candidates from Cook County could run as reformers! Rod Blagojevich ran as a moderate conservative candidate going so far as to have a line in a commercial that claimed he was Anti-Tax! It was not our issues that the people of Illinois rejected it was George governing as a Democrat. How do you attack Rod as a tax and spend liberal when George Ryan did the same thing? How could we say the corrupt Democrats when George kept putting his face in the news all of the time? Republicans do respect loyalty it is a commendable trait, but it works two ways. George Ryan was the poster boy for corrupt politicians and he threw a temper tantrum and took everyone down with him. As long as he was in the Governors mansion the fix was in.

The good thing is the voters wanted a change from the old ways, they will find out soon nothing has changed. When they do the GOP will be able to offer them what they want. It is important that we do not let the old party regulars come back and blame this loss on the conservatives. One of the old guard who will say we have to moderate is Jim Thompson , he has made millions of dollars because of his relationship with the Republican party in Illinois, has anyone asked why he threw a fund raiser for Rod at his law firm? If the old guard were to take the party control back, this loss and pain will all have been for nothing. Conservatives have the party after a long and bloody battle it is time for us to build a governing coalition and get ready for 2004.

It will be a presidential year our base will come out in big numbers. There are three things that should be in our sites. Winning Illinois for President Bush, keeping the Senate Seat held by Peter Fitzgerald and winning back the State Senate. And it starts now!

And so, good-bye, God bless you, and God bless the United States of America.

==>Ronald Reagan