The decision of Lee Daniels not to seek re-election as House leader prompted the competition, and the differences between Tenhouse and Cross couldn't be more glaring. If chosen, Tenhouse would be able to cooperate with a Gov. Jim Ryan and mount a principled opposition to a Gov. Rod Blagojevich. Cross is close to Blagojevich, stemming from the fact that the two have similar views favoring abortion rights. In a very real sense, the soul of the Republican caucus will be determined by the vote of the House GOP caucus.

Tenhouse's background is superb. The 52-year-old lawmaker has an MBA from the University of Illinois and is a certified public accountant. He is former president of the Adams County Farm Bureau and partner in a farming enterprise. He has the ability to build consensus in a diverse caucus, securing the backing of moderate GOP members while not turning his back on his beliefs. He is an expert on agribusiness, and has been one of the strongest advocates in the General Assembly for small business.

An articulate exponent of ethics in government, Tenhouse has grown in stature since entering the Legislature in 1989. He has been the Republicans' chief budget negotiator and achieves results through a self-effacing humor that masks firmness. In addition, he has another quality indispensable to party leadership: fund-raising ability. This past summer Tenhouse hosted the single largest fund-raiser ever held by a member of the House Republican leadership. He is married and the father of three.

Cross, 43, is an attorney. He was born in Nashville, Tenn., and received an undergraduate degree from Illinois Wesleyan and his law degree from Samford University's Cumberland School of Law in Birmingham, Ala. He is co-chairman of the House Republican Campaign Committee. In the Legislature since 1993, Cross has identified with positions in opposition to social conservatism. He voted against tuition tax credits, which Republicans have traditionally espoused to aid private education. When a drive was on to force schools and libraries to install filters to protect young people from pornography, Cross voted against the measure. On gaming measures, he is an ally of Rosemont Mayor Don Stephens.

If Cross is elected Republican leader, a sharp division with the GOP caucus could make the group ineffective. It would be a signal that Republicans would not fight for traditional family values that have always ranked foremost with the party. Because he is close to Blagojevich, Cross would make it easier for Democratic victories in the House to be achieved--and the public would be deprived of a well-generated opposition.

In contrast, Tenhouse's solid experience would mean that with a Democratic governor, anti-tax hike positions would be thoroughly reasoned and ably defined. His rural background and experience in farming guarantees that there would be a balance to a Democratic state administration where almost all the officials would come from Chicago and be indebted to the Daley organization.

What is likely to happen? It's too close to call, but the outcome in the House Republican election will determine whether the character of the party's future for years to come. With a Gov. Jim Ryan, Tenhouse would be a valued ally; with a Gov. Blagojevich, Tenhouse would be a restraint on the spending and taxes that have marked the nation's Democratic governors.

It's one election you and I can't vote in. Conservatives should hope, even pray, that the winner is Tenhouse.

As we approach the November mid-term election, the President and the Republican Party are in a historic and positive position. Since 1934, the incumbent party of the President has lost an average of 27 congressional seats in the first mid-term election. It now appears this mid-term will not follow the trend of history. A few key factors have contributed to this dynamic in the past.

Two primary factors are the approval rating of the President and the public's support of the pposition party and its leaders. Historically, a President's approval rating is dismal during the first mid-term election. The exception to that trend would be John F. Kennedy in 1962, who had a 60% approval rating going into his first mid-term election.

Also historically, the opposing party has a major advantage over the President's party on favorability and key issues.

There is significant evidence that this election is breaking from historical trends:

1) Historically, Republicans have success at the polls even when Democrats have a three to five point generic ballot advantage. Now on the generic ballot, Republican and Democratic candidates are tied and it has basically been this way for 7 months. So despite Democrat hopes that a variety of issues might work to their advantage, the generic ballot has not moved.

2) In past elections, Democrats have had a seven-point party favorability advantage. But, during the last seven months, Republicans have maintained a 2 to 6 point net favorability advantage and this week's polling is no different.

3) President Bush's approval rating in all public and private polls continues to be above 60% as we predicted months ago. In fact, in our most recent poll, the President's approval rating is near 70%.

4) There is no national Democratic leader with overwhelmingly positive ratings. Most of the Democrat Party leaders have significant unfavorable ratings or weak or anemic favorable ratings. The last Democratic nominee for President, Al Gore, has high negatives and net unfavorables. This is a unique and dangerous position for the opposition party.

The following facts about the current issue landscape illustrate several Republican advantages:

1) Today the issues most important to voters are:

a) Economy,
b) Terrorism/Security/Iraq, and
c) Education. This has been the case for 3 - 4 months now.

2) The public continues to be very concerned about the economy and is somewhat less optimistic than they were a few months ago. Further, a majority of the public thinks the economy is going in the wrong direction, not the right direction. Pundits and political strategists of both parties have mistakenly assumed Democrats would benefit because of this.

3) The public trusts the President over Democrats in Congress on each of the above issues, despite media coverage over the last few weeks concerning the President and Iraq and Homeland Security, and Democrat efforts to be perceived as dominant on domestic issues. Ironically this includes the issues the Democrats often refer to as "kitchen table" issues. In a broader comparison the public trusts the Republican Party over the Democratic Party overwhelmingly on terrorism/security, and the Republican Party is tied with the Democrat Party on the issues of the Economy and Education.

4) The public's desire, in spite of the Democrats best efforts to the contrary, is to not fix political blame for the economy. They continue to look for positive solutions for job creation and economic growth. Thus far, the public hasn't heard a single positive message from Democrats on this issue. This provides a great opportunity for Republicans to debate and engage voters and Democrats directly. Since Democrats do not have the voters' overwhelming trust on the economy and have no real solutions from their leaders, the Republicans are in a great position to win the debate on the economy in this election.

5) Corporate accountability/responsibility has fallen to some degree as an issue of concern. The public still trusts the President and Republicans in Congress more on this issue. Pundits initially speculated this issue would be a boon for Democrats, but based on the generic ballot stability, the President's continued high approval ratings, and the Republican Party's favorability advantage, voters clearly understand the source of this problem.

Conclusion:

This election will be fought at the local and state level in a few contested races around the country. Though Democrats have tried to nationalize this election with coordinated attacks over last few months the facts above show the public has not responded. It is amazing that with an economy growing less than we would like, the Democrats have no inherent advantage on this issue or on any of voters' top concerns. It points to an opportunity for Republican candidates to discuss the President's positive economic agenda in a major and profound way. Voters are looking for positive solutions, not fixing blame. And Democrat's lack of both leadership and a positive agenda for the economy has left them unable to connect with voters.

A little inside info. There is a buzz that the numbers are closing fast in the Governors race. Depending on who you talk to the spread is four in one poll to seven in another.

During last week’s gubernatorial debate Rod Blagojevich proved again that he will say and do anything to get elected. He made a shameful attempt to connect Jim Ryan with the horrific 1994 accident that claimed the lives of the six Willis children. Blagojevich has since said he won`t apologize. Earlier this week the Elgin Courier News endorsed Jim Ryan for Governor. Jim Ryan also introduced a plan to attack domestic violence and improve the safety of women. Finally, Jim Ryan launched a new ad exposing the real Rod Blagojevich.

Great news! The NRA endorsed Jim Ryan.
Jim Ryan received a B+ Rod Blagojevich received an F
For your reference, the NRA states that an "F" represents a true enemy of gun owners. A vehement antigun candidate who always opposes gun owners' rights and/or actively leads antigun legislative efforts, or sponsors antigun legislation.
This is straight out of the American Rifleman. Wow!
Spread the word............
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Joe Birkett Supporters:

It is a lie. There's no other way to put it.

Lisa Madigan's new television commercial -- about a domestic violence case -- is flat-out false. The ad refers to a violent domestic violence incident and says that Joe "agreed to a plea bargain of just 34 days in jail."

The truth is that Joe's office asked the judge to give the victim's husband the maximum sentence: seven years in prison. At one point, the victim had supported a shorter sentence in exchange for custody of their children. But there was never a final plea bargain. Never. The judge decided the sentence, despite Joe's office asking for the
maximum prison term. Joe's office could not have asked for or done more. The truth of this case shows Joe's compassion for victims and commitment to justice.

Lisa Madigan has pulled out one of the thousands of cases Joe's office handled, and she lied about it. Why? Because she doesn't want voters to know that she is unqualified to be Attorney General.

We would appreciate if you could forward this to others. We will keep you updated on other Madigan untruths. Thank you for your support.

John Hoffman Campaign Manager
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United States Senate race! This race is not over

Tribune endorses Jim Durkin for Senate
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/specials/elections/chi-0210200421oct20,0,7764312.story

Sun-Times endorses Jim Durkin
http://www.suntimes.com/output/endorse/ussenate.html

Daily Southtown endorses Jim Durkin:
http://www.dailysouthtown.com/southtown/dsedit/x21-ed1.htm

TONIGHT!!!!
You Are Invited to a Fundraiser for
Representative Jim Durkin Republican Candidate-United States Senate Tuesday, October 22nd, at 5:30 p.m.

$50 per person

Chicago Athletic Association-2nd Floor Lounge
12 South Michigan Avenue - Chicago, IL 60603

RSVP to Jim Leahy at 847/945-6104 or to Joe Wiegand at 847/428-0363 Or you can purchase them @ the door.

==> William F. Buckley, Jr.